Championship (England) · Wed, Sep 2 · 19:00 · Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 49%
A 49% away win. The market says 37%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley30%36%−6
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−6
OursMarket
Middlesbrough49%37%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 63% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 64% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 49% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · at Norwich City (A)1-4
- Aug 26 · at Bradford City (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Notts County (H)1-1
Middlesbrough
WinWinLossWinWin
- Aug 29 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Lincoln City (H)2-1
- Aug 7 · v Wrexham (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Burnley | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-6-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.