EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Burnley vs Notts County
Likeliest: Notts County win · 43%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley30%63%−33
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Notts County43%15%+28
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 85% | −28 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 37% | +33 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 81% | −40 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- May 18 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Aston Villa (H)2-2
- May 1 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
Notts County
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- May 25 · v Salford City (H)3-0
- May 15 · v Chesterfield (H)0-0
- May 10 · at Chesterfield (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Bristol Rovers (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at Colchester United (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Burnley | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-5-5 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.