Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 15:00 · Burnley vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Burnley win · 39%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley39%30%+9
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−4
OursMarket
West Ham United37%42%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 57% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 70% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 42% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 2 · at Sunderland (A)0-3
- Jan 24 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-2
- Jan 17 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · v Millwall (H)5-1
- Jan 7 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
West Ham United
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Jan 31 · at Chelsea (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v Sunderland (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Jan 11 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-1
- Jan 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Burnley | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.