Championship (England) · Sun, Aug 16 · 15:00 · Burnley vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Burnley win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 32%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley41%32%+9
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
West Ham United36%41%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 68% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 43% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 8 · v Notts County (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- May 18 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Aston Villa (H)2-2
West Ham United
LossLossLossWinWin
- Aug 8 · v Portsmouth (H)3-1
- May 24 · v Leeds United (H)3-0
- May 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
- May 10 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Brentford (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Burnley | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-5-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.