Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Burnley win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 40%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley51%40%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers25%34%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 66% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 60% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 54% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- May 18 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Aston Villa (H)2-2
- May 1 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
- Apr 22 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Apr 19 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-4
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- May 17 · v Fulham (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- May 2 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Leeds United (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.