1. Lig (Turkey) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:00 · Bursaspor vs Pendikspor
Likeliest: Bursaspor win · 69%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bursaspor69%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Pendikspor11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bursaspor
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 15 · at Muğlaspor (A)3-0
- Oct 11 · v Mardin 1969 Spor (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Batman Petrolspor (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Esenler Erokspor (H)2-2
- Sep 7 · at Manisa FK (A)2-1
Pendikspor
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 13 · v Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · at Sivasspor (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Bodrum FK (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Boluspor (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Ümraniyespor (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Bursaspor | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.