EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Burton Albion vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Burton Albion win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 31%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burton Albion45%31%+15
OursMarket
Draw29%28%0
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers26%41%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 46% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 52% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 59% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 69% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 43% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burton Albion
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- May 2 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Exeter City (H)1-1
- Apr 19 · at Peterborough United (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)1-0
- Apr 6 · at Mansfield Town (A)0-0
Blackburn Rovers
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- May 2 · v Leicester City (H)0-1
- Apr 22 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Apr 17 · v Coventry City (H)1-1
- Apr 14 · at Southampton (A)0-3
- Apr 11 · at Stoke City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Burton Albion | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.