League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Burton Albion vs Bradford City
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 46%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 59% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burton Albion24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Bradford City46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 46% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 39% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burton Albion
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Peterborough United (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)0-1
- Oct 6 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-3
- Sep 26 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-0
Bradford City
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Stevenage (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Leyton Orient (H)0-0
- Oct 6 · at Rotherham United (A)4-0
- Oct 3 · at Reading (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newcastle United U21 (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Burton Albion | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.