League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient
Likeliest: Leyton Orient win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burton Albion34%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+3
OursMarket
Leyton Orient36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burton Albion
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Peterborough United (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)0-1
- Oct 6 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-3
- Sep 26 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-0
Leyton Orient
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Blackpool (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Bradford City (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Stevenage (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Arsenal U21 (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Burton Albion | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.