Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 13:00 · Burundi vs Algeria
Likeliest: Algeria win · 60%
A 29% draw. The market says 16%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burundi11%8%+3
OursMarket
Draw29%16%+14
OursMarket
Algeria60%76%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 58% | −25 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 24% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 92% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 84% | −14 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 16% | 9% | +6 |
| Expected goals | 0.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burundi
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 25 · at Togo (A)0-0
- May 26 · at Morocco (A)0-5
- Nov 15 · v Burundi B (H)3-4
- Jun 10 · v Mauritania (H)0-0
- Jun 6 · at Guinea-Bissau (A)1-0
Algeria
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Zambia (H)0-0
- Jul 3 · at Switzerland (A)0-2
- Jun 28 · v Austria (H)3-3
- Jun 23 · at Jordan (A)2-1
- Jun 17 · at Argentina (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Burundi | Algeria |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.