K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 25 · 05:00 · Busan I Park vs Gyeongnam FC
Likeliest: Busan I Park win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Busan I Park49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Gyeongnam FC23%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Busan I Park
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Jeonnam Dragons (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Paju Citizen FC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Gimpo FC (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Gimhae City FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)0-1
Gyeongnam FC
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Chungnam Asan FC (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Cheonan City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Yongin City FC (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · v Seongnam FC (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Busan I Park | Gyeongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-3 | 0-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.