K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 18 · 07:30 · Busan I Park vs Jeonnam Dragons
Likeliest: Busan I Park win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Busan I Park46%49%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Jeonnam Dragons26%25%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Busan I Park
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Paju Citizen FC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Gimpo FC (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Gimhae City FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Suwon FC (A)1-2
Jeonnam Dragons
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Yongin City FC (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Suwon FC (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v Gimpo FC (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Gimhae City FC (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Cheonan City FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Busan I Park | Jeonnam Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.