3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · Byasen Toppfotball vs Nardo
Likeliest: Byasen Toppfotball win · 47%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Byasen Toppfotball47%56%−9
OursMarket
Draw27%20%+7
OursMarket
Nardo26%24%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 72% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 44% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 80% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 70% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Byasen Toppfotball
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · at FK Kvik (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Orkla (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Herd (H)6-1
- Sep 13 · at Ranheim 2 (A)4-1
- Sep 5 · v Strindheim (H)1-2
Nardo
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v Strindheim (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at NTNUI (A)5-2
- Sep 21 · v Ranheim 2 (H)4-1
- Sep 13 · at Rosenborg BK II (A)5-2
- Sep 5 · v Spjelkavik (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Byasen Toppfotball | Nardo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.