Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:00 · CA Independiente Reserve vs Huracán Reserve
Likeliest: CA Independiente Reserve win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CA Independiente Reserve53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Huracán Reserve21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CA Independiente Reserve
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 7 · at Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (A)0-0
- Oct 1 · v Boca Juniors Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 24 · at Racing Reserve (A)2-1
- Sep 15 · v Colón Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 8 · at Atletico Rafaela Reserve (A)1-2
Huracán Reserve
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 6 · v Atletico Rafaela Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 30 · at Platense Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 22 · at San Lorenzo Reserve (A)2-0
- Sep 16 · v Quilmes Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · at Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | CA Independiente Reserve | Huracán Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.