Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 25 · 20:00 · CA Independiente vs Boca Juniors
Likeliest: Boca Juniors win · 47%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 51% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CA Independiente21%25%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+3
OursMarket
Boca Juniors47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CA Independiente
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at Racing Club (A)1-1
- Oct 12 · at Talleres (A)0-0
- Oct 2 · v Instituto De Córdoba (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v San Lorenzo (H)1-1
Boca Juniors
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Talleres (H)2-1
- Oct 14 · v Vasco da Gama (H)0-1
- Oct 9 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (H)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Racing Club (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | CA Independiente | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-7-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.