La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:15 · Cádiz vs AD Ceuta
Likeliest: Cádiz win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cádiz51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
AD Ceuta22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cádiz
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Granada (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · v Sporting Gijón (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Leganés (H)4-0
- Sep 26 · at CD Tenerife (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Girona FC (H)1-2
AD Ceuta
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · v CE Sabadell (H)1-2
- Oct 4 · at CD Castellón (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Real Sociedad B (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Real Valladolid (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cádiz | AD Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.