La Liga 2 (Spain) · Fri, May 8 · 18:30 · Cádiz vs Deportivo La Coruña
Likeliest: Deportivo La Coruña win · 49%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cádiz28%26%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Deportivo La Coruña49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 50% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 35% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cádiz
LossLossLossLossDraw
- May 2 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)2-2
- Apr 27 · v Las Palmas (H)1-2
- Apr 19 · at Sporting Gijón (A)0-3
- Apr 12 · v FC Andorra (H)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Córdoba (H)1-3
Deportivo La Coruña
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- May 1 · v Leganés (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Burgos (A)1-1
- Apr 20 · v Mirandés (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at Huesca (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Málaga (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cádiz | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-8 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.