La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:15 · Cádiz vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: Las Palmas win · 35%
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cádiz35%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
Las Palmas35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cádiz
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · at Almería (A)2-3
- Aug 30 · v Real Valladolid (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at CD Eldense (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Celta Vigo B (H)0-0
- May 31 · at Racing de Santander (A)1-4
Las Palmas
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 4 · v Leganés (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Girona FC (A)2-5
- Aug 22 · at AD Ceuta (A)2-0
- Aug 16 · v Albacete Balompié (H)2-1
- Jun 10 · at Málaga (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cádiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.