La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 24 · 16:30 · Cádiz vs Leganés
Likeliest: Leganés win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 31%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cádiz34%41%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Leganés40%31%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 69% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 57% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cádiz
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- May 15 · at Castellón (A)1-1
- May 8 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)2-2
- Apr 27 · v Las Palmas (H)1-2
- Apr 19 · at Sporting Gijón (A)0-3
Leganés
LossLossLossLossDraw
- May 18 · v Huesca (H)0-0
- May 10 · v Racing Santander (H)1-2
- May 1 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-2
- Apr 26 · v FC Andorra (H)0-4
- Apr 17 · at Las Palmas (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Cádiz | Leganés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-9 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.