La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Aug 30 · 17:00 · Cádiz vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Cádiz win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 37%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cádiz57%37%+19
OursMarket
Draw23%31%−8
OursMarket
Real Valladolid20%32%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 40% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 47% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 68% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 63% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 69% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 54% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cádiz
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · at CD Eldense (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Celta Vigo B (H)0-0
- May 31 · at Racing de Santander (A)1-4
- May 31 · at Racing Santander (A)1-4
- May 24 · v Leganés (H)3-0
Real Valladolid
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 23 · at Eibar (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Mallorca (A)0-2
- May 31 · at Almería (A)0-1
- May 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)0-2
- May 16 · at Racing Santander (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Cádiz | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.