Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Apr 27 · 16:30 · Cagliari vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Cagliari win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 21%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari37%21%+16
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Atalanta35%54%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 46% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 79% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 28% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 17 · at Inter (A)0-3
- Apr 11 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Mar 20 · v Napoli (H)0-1
- Mar 15 · at Pisa (A)1-3
Atalanta
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Apr 22 · v Lazio (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Roma (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Lecce (A)3-0
- Mar 22 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.