Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Mar 7 · 14:00 · Cagliari vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 47%
A 27% home win. The market says 18%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari27%18%+9
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Como47%58%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 42% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 82% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 24% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Feb 27 · at Parma (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Lazio (H)0-0
- Feb 16 · v Lecce (H)0-2
- Feb 9 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v Hellas Verona (H)4-0
Como
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Mar 3 · v Inter (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · v Lecce (H)3-1
- Feb 21 · at Juventus (A)2-0
- Feb 18 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Fiorentina (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.