Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Mar 7 · 19:45 · Cagliari vs Genoa
Likeliest: Cagliari win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Cagliari43%——
OursMarket
Draw29%——
OursMarket
Genoa28%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Mar 2 · at Bologna (A)1-2
- Feb 23 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Feb 15 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
- Feb 9 · v Parma (H)2-1
- Feb 3 · v Lazio (H)1-2
Genoa
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Mar 2 · v Empoli (H)1-1
- Feb 22 · at Inter (A)0-1
- Feb 17 · v Venezia (H)2-0
- Feb 8 · at Torino (A)1-1
- Feb 2 · at Fiorentina (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 3-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 44% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.