Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Nov 22 · 14:00 · Cagliari vs Genoa
Likeliest: Genoa win · 38%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari36%33%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−7
OursMarket
Genoa38%34%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 35% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 49% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Nov 8 · at Como (A)0-0
- Nov 3 · at Lazio (A)0-2
- Oct 30 · v Sassuolo (H)1-2
- Oct 26 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-2
- Oct 19 · v Bologna (H)0-2
Genoa
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Nov 9 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
- Nov 3 · at Sassuolo (A)2-1
- Oct 29 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
- Oct 26 · at Torino (A)1-2
- Oct 19 · v Parma (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.