Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 31 · 19:45 · Cagliari vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Cagliari win · 43%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari43%42%+2
OursMarket
Draw27%32%−4
OursMarket
Hellas Verona29%26%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 37% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 68% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 24 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v Juventus (H)1-0
- Jan 12 · at Genoa (A)0-3
- Jan 8 · at Cremonese (A)2-2
- Jan 2 · v Milan (H)0-1
Hellas Verona
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Jan 26 · v Udinese (H)1-3
- Jan 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Jan 15 · v Bologna (H)2-3
- Jan 11 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- Jan 7 · at Napoli (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.