Coppa Italia (Italy) · Thu, Sep 3 · 19:00 · Cagliari vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Cagliari win · 67%
A 67% home win. The market says 49%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari67%49%+18
OursMarket
Draw19%28%−9
OursMarket
Hellas Verona14%23%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 46% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 77% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 51% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 72% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 68% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 30 · v Inter Milan (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Parma (A)1-0
- Aug 14 · v Arezzo (H)1-0
- May 24 · at AC Milan (A)2-1
- May 17 · v Torino (H)2-1
Hellas Verona
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Aug 29 · at Padova (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Ascoli (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Virtus Entella (H)2-2
- May 24 · v Roma (H)0-2
- May 17 · at Inter (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.