Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 17 · 19:45 · Cagliari vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 43%
A 31% home win. The market says 15%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari31%15%+16
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+3
OursMarket
Juventus43%62%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 38% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 85% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 19% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 12 · at Genoa (A)0-3
- Jan 8 · at Cremonese (A)2-2
- Jan 2 · v Milan (H)0-1
- Dec 27 · at Torino (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Pisa (H)2-2
Juventus
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 12 · v Cremonese (H)5-0
- Jan 6 · at Sassuolo (A)3-0
- Jan 3 · v Lecce (H)1-1
- Dec 27 · at Pisa (A)2-0
- Dec 20 · v Roma (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.