Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Oct 11 · 18:45 · Cagliari vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 64%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 64% for the away win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Juventus64%61%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 20% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Atalanta (A)2-1
- Sep 7 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Inter Milan (H)0-1
Juventus
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 4 · at AC Milan (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Napoli (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Atalanta (H)2-0
- Sep 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at Sassuolo (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.