Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 21 · 19:45 · Cagliari vs Lazio
Likeliest: Cagliari win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 28%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari43%28%+14
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−7
OursMarket
Lazio31%39%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 37% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 61% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 72% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 42% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 16 · v Lecce (H)0-2
- Feb 9 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v Hellas Verona (H)4-0
- Jan 24 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v Juventus (H)1-0
Lazio
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 14 · v Atalanta (H)0-2
- Feb 11 · at Bologna (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Juventus (A)2-2
- Jan 30 · v Genoa (H)3-2
- Jan 24 · at Lecce (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.