Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Feb 16 · 19:45 · Cagliari vs Lecce
Likeliest: Cagliari win · 54%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari54%41%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%32%−7
OursMarket
Lecce22%26%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 36% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 59% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 61% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 9 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v Hellas Verona (H)4-0
- Jan 24 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v Juventus (H)1-0
- Jan 12 · at Genoa (A)0-3
Lecce
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Feb 8 · v Udinese (H)2-1
- Feb 1 · at Torino (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · v Lazio (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at AC Milan (A)0-1
- Jan 14 · at Inter (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.