Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Sep 7 · 16:30 · Cagliari vs Lecce
Likeliest: Cagliari win · 52%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari52%48%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Lecce22%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 40% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 3 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Inter Milan (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Parma (A)1-0
- Aug 14 · v Arezzo (H)1-0
- May 24 · at AC Milan (A)2-1
Lecce
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 31 · v Roma (H)0-4
- Aug 23 · at Venezia (A)2-0
- Aug 17 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- May 24 · v Genoa (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Sassuolo (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.