Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Mar 20 · 17:30 · Cagliari vs Napoli
Likeliest: Napoli win · 39%
A 32% home win. The market says 16%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari32%16%+16
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+4
OursMarket
Napoli39%58%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 42% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 43% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 42% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 84% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 22% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Mar 15 · at Pisa (A)1-3
- Mar 7 · v Como (H)1-2
- Feb 27 · at Parma (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Lazio (H)0-0
- Feb 16 · v Lecce (H)0-2
Napoli
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Mar 14 · v Lecce (H)2-1
- Mar 6 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-1
- Feb 22 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Feb 15 · v Roma (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.