Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 7 · 14:00 · Cagliari vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 49%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari27%17%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Roma49%57%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 43% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 83% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 23% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Dec 3 · at Napoli (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Juventus (A)1-2
- Nov 22 · v Genoa (H)3-3
- Nov 8 · at Como (A)0-0
- Nov 3 · at Lazio (A)0-2
Roma
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 30 · v Napoli (H)0-1
- Nov 27 · v FC Midtjylland (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Cremonese (A)3-1
- Nov 9 · v Udinese (H)2-0
- Nov 6 · at Rangers (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.