Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 18:45 · Cagliari vs Torino
Likeliest: Cagliari win · 43%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari43%39%+3
OursMarket
Draw27%31%−3
OursMarket
Torino30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 57% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- May 9 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- May 3 · at Bologna (A)0-0
- Apr 27 · v Atalanta (H)3-2
- Apr 17 · at Inter (A)0-3
- Apr 11 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
Torino
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- May 8 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- May 2 · at Udinese (A)0-2
- Apr 26 · v Inter (H)2-2
- Apr 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Apr 11 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.