Serie A (Italy) · Sat, May 9 · 13:00 · Cagliari vs Udinese
Likeliest: Udinese win · 38%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cagliari36%36%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Udinese38%33%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 42% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 53% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cagliari
LossWinLossWinDraw
- May 3 · at Bologna (A)0-0
- Apr 27 · v Atalanta (H)3-2
- Apr 17 · at Inter (A)0-3
- Apr 11 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
Udinese
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- May 2 · v Torino (H)2-0
- Apr 27 · at Lazio (A)3-3
- Apr 18 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Apr 11 · at AC Milan (A)3-0
- Apr 6 · v Como (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Cagliari | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.