Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Apr 12 · 13:00 · Calcio Padova vs Empoli
Likeliest: Calcio Padova win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 30%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Calcio Padova49%30%+19
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−4
OursMarket
Empoli25%41%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 59% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 70% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 42% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Calcio Padova
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 5 · at Frosinone (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v Palermo (H)0-1
- Mar 17 · at Venezia (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v Catanzaro (H)1-3
- Mar 7 · at Avellino (A)0-1
Empoli
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Apr 6 · at Sampdoria (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Pescara (H)4-2
- Mar 17 · at Spezia (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Mantova (H)2-2
- Mar 8 · at Catanzaro (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Calcio Padova | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.