ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Fri, Jul 24 · 12:00 · Cambodia vs Singapore
Likeliest: Cambodia win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 33%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cambodia49%33%+16
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Singapore25%41%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 58% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 62% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 59% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 67% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 45% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cambodia
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Jun 9 · v Hong Kong (H)2-0
- Jun 4 · v Bhutan (H)4-0
- Nov 13 · at Hong Kong (A)1-1
- Jun 5 · v Tajikistan (H)1-2
- Mar 25 · v Aruba (H)1-2
Singapore
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Jun 5 · v China (H)1-2
- Jun 5 · v China PR (H)1-2
- May 31 · v Mongolia (H)4-0
- Nov 13 · at Thailand (A)2-3
- Sep 9 · v Myanmar (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cambodia | Singapore |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.