EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:45 · Cambridge United vs Millwall
Likeliest: Cambridge United win · 48%
We make it 60% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cambridge United48%27%+21
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Millwall24%45%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 48% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 55% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 73% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 37% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cambridge United
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 22 · at Bromley (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Wigan Athletic (H)3-2
- Aug 8 · v Barnet (H)2-1
- May 2 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)0-0
- Apr 25 · v Barrow (H)3-0
Millwall
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 22 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
- Aug 15 · at Bristol City (A)2-0
- Aug 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-1
- May 11 · v Hull City (H)0-2
- May 8 · at Hull City (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Cambridge United | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.