Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Cambridge United vs Northampton Town
Likeliest: Cambridge United win · 59%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cambridge United59%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%24%0
OursMarket
Northampton Town18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cambridge United
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 26 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · at Gillingham (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Reading (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
Northampton Town
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Rotherham United (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Newport County (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · v Crawley Town (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Gillingham (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cambridge United | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.