League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Cambridge United vs Plymouth Argyle
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 36%
A 31% draw. The market says 26%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cambridge United33%37%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%26%+5
OursMarket
Plymouth Argyle36%37%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 74% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cambridge United
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Barnsley (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Blackpool (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Northampton Town (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · at Gillingham (A)4-1
Plymouth Argyle
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Huddersfield Town (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)2-1
- Oct 6 · at Newport County (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Burton Albion (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cambridge United | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.