League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Cambridge United vs Wycombe Wanderers
Likeliest: Cambridge United win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cambridge United42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Wycombe Wanderers30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 56% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cambridge United
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Barnsley (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Blackpool (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Northampton Town (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · at Gillingham (A)4-1
Wycombe Wanderers
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Notts County (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Luton Town (H)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Bristol Rovers (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · v Reading (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Wigan Athletic (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Cambridge United | Wycombe Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.