Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Fri, Nov 13 · 16:00 · Cape Verde vs Liberia
Likeliest: Cape Verde win · 62%
Likely scores: 1–0 17% · 2–1 16% · 0–0 14%
We make it 44% for both teams to score. The market says 34%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cape Verde62%72%−10
OursMarket
Draw28%20%+8
OursMarket
Liberia9%8%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 42% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 34% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 92% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 28% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 90% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cape Verde
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 29 · v Rwanda (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Mali (A)0-0
- Jul 3 · at Argentina (A)1-1
- Jun 27 · v Saudi Arabia (H)0-0
- Jun 21 · at Uruguay (A)2-2
Liberia
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 29 · v Mali (H)0-1
- Sep 25 · at Rwanda (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · v Sierra Leone (H)3-1
- Jun 6 · at Sierra Leone (A)0-1
- Mar 31 · v Libya (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Cape Verde | Liberia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-1 | 1-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 29% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.