Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 16:00 · Cape Verde vs Rwanda
Likeliest: Cape Verde win · 60%
We make it 47% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cape Verde60%70%−10
OursMarket
Draw29%21%+8
OursMarket
Rwanda11%9%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 42% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 36% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 91% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 30% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 88% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.5 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cape Verde
DrawDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 25 · at Mali (A)0-0
- Jul 3 · at Argentina (A)1-1
- Jun 27 · v Saudi Arabia (H)0-0
- Jun 21 · at Uruguay (A)2-2
- Jun 15 · at Spain (A)0-0
Rwanda
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 25 · v Liberia (H)0-0
- Mar 30 · v Estonia (H)2-0
- Mar 27 · v Grenada (H)4-0
- Jun 9 · at Algeria (A)0-2
- Jun 5 · at Algeria (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Cape Verde | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-0 | 2-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.