Liga FUTVE (Venezuela) · Sat, Oct 17 · 22:30 · Carabobo vs Deportivo Táchira
Likeliest: Carabobo win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Carabobo39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Deportivo Táchira30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Carabobo
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Anzoátegui FC (A)1-0
- May 28 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)0-2
- May 28 · at Bragantino (A)0-2
- May 22 · at Blooming (A)2-0
- May 8 · v River Plate (H)1-2
Deportivo Táchira
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Universidad Central (H)4-1
- Feb 20 · v Deportes Tolima (H)0-1
- Feb 4 · at The Strongest (A)1-2
- May 29 · at Flamengo (A)0-1
- May 13 · v Central Cordoba SdE (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Carabobo | Deportivo Táchira |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 1-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.