Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Cardiff City vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Birmingham City39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-2
- Oct 13 · v Watford (H)5-1
- Oct 10 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)0-1
Birmingham City
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-0
- Oct 13 · v Preston North End (H)4-0
- Oct 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Derby County (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.