League One (England) · Sat, Apr 11 · 11:30 · Cardiff City vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 49%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City49%52%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+1
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers27%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 64% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 64% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 68% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Apr 6 · at Peterborough United (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Blackpool (H)0-0
- Mar 17 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)0-2
- Mar 14 · at Exeter City (A)4-0
- Mar 10 · at Barnsley (A)1-1
Bolton Wanderers
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 6 · v Stockport County (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Port Vale (A)0-1
- Mar 17 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)0-0
- Mar 14 · at Rotherham United (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.