Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:30 · Cardiff City vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic22%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Stoke City (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Portsmouth (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Sheffield United (H)2-2
Charlton Athletic
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · v Portsmouth (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Stoke City (A)0-4
- Sep 2 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Preston North End (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.