Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 25 · 15:00 · Cardiff City vs Derby County
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Cardiff City46%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Derby County28%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Jan 21 · at Millwall (A)2-2
- Jan 18 · v Swansea City (H)3-0
- Jan 14 · v Watford (H)1-1
- Jan 9 · at Sheffield United (A)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-1
Derby County
LossLossLossLoss
- Jan 21 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Jan 18 · v Watford (H)0-2
- Jan 4 · at Bristol City (A)0-1
- Jan 1 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-0 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | — |
| Both teams scored | 67% | — |
| Clean sheets | 33% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.