Championship (England) · Tue, Mar 11 · 19:45 · Cardiff City vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Cardiff City47%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Luton Town27%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 8 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
- Mar 4 · v Burnley (H)1-2
- Feb 28 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
- Feb 25 · v Hull City (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-1
Luton Town
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Mar 8 · at Burnley (A)0-4
- Mar 1 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Feb 23 · at Watford (A)0-2
- Feb 19 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)1-1
- Feb 15 · v Sheffield United (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 0-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.