League One (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:00 · Cardiff City vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 50%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City50%51%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
Luton Town26%23%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 77% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 69% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Feb 7 · at Rotherham United (A)3-0
- Jan 31 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
- Jan 27 · v Barnsley (H)4-0
- Jan 24 · v Stockport County (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · at Bradford City (A)2-1
Luton Town
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Bradford City (H)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Blackpool (H)1-0
- Jan 27 · at Huddersfield Town (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)0-1
- Jan 17 · v Lincoln City (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.